Should We Be Worried About Declining Birth Rates?我们应该担心人口出生率下降吗？

The global population has been growing at a much slower pace than before and some countries’ populations have actually decreased. In 2023， the U.S. birth rate dropped to a record low of approximately 1.7 births per woman， according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

全球人口增长速度比以前慢了许多，有些国家的人口实际上已经有所减少。根据美国疾病控制与预防中心的统计数据，2023年美国的人口出生率降至历史最低点，每位女性约生育1.7个孩子。

The required replacement rate for a population to be maintained is 2.1 children per woman， but many countries are no longer reaching that. South Korea currently has the lowest birth rate in the world， at just 0.72 children per woman. “What we are experiencing now， and have been experiencing for decades， is something that we have not seen before in human history， which is a large-scale， cross-national， cross-cultural shift towards preferring and having smaller families，” said Jennifer D. Sciubba， a demographer and the author of “8 Billion and Counting1： How Sex， Death， and Migration Shape Our World.”

要维持人口数量，所需的更替水平生育率为每位女性生育2.1个孩子，但许多国家已经达不到这一水平。韩国目前是世界上人口出生率最低的国家，每位女性仅生育0.72个孩子。“我们现在所经历的以及几十年来一直在经历的，是人类历史上前所未有的大规模、跨国家、跨文化的转变，即人们转而偏向生育更少的孩子。”著有《80亿人口——一个全球性重要议题：生育、死亡和移民如何塑造世界》的人口统计学家珍妮弗·D. 朔巴表示。

Some experts claim falling populations could be a positive development， while others worry about the future of an aging society. “Not having children， or having fewer children， is becoming more socially acceptable，” said Sarah Hayford， the director of the Institute for Population Research at the Ohio State University. “As a result， people are weighing more carefully the decision to have children.”

一些专家声称人口下降可能是个积极的发展趋势，而另一些专家则担心老龄化社会的未来。俄亥俄州立大学人口研究所所长莎拉·海福德表示：“不生孩子或少生孩子越来越为社会所接受。因此，人们会更加慎重地决定是否生孩子。”

The future is feeble

未来脆弱不堪

A declining population could spell particular trouble for older generations. “People are living longer， so populations as a whole have fewer people of working age who can provide for older people and others who are economically inactive，” said New Scientist. This problem has become even more significant in the past few years. “Since the pandemic， labor shortages have become endemic throughout developed countries，” said The Wall Street Journal. “That will only worsen in coming years as the postcrisis fall in birthrates yields an ever-shrinking inflow of young workers， placing more strain on healthcare and retirement systems.”

人口下降可能尤其会给老年人带来麻烦。《新科学家》杂志称：“人们的寿命更长了，因此整体人口中能够供养老年人和其他非经济活动人群的劳动年龄人口更少了。”这个问题在过去几年里变得更加严重。“疫情过后，发达国家普遍出现劳动力短缺现象。”《华尔街日报》表示，“未来多年，随着后疫情时代出生率下降导致年轻劳动力的流入不断减少，问题只会加剧，医疗保健和退休体制将面临更大的压力。”

U.S. systems like Medicare and Social Security， which rely on the contributions of younger generations， will be affected by the population decline. “As life expectancy increases it becomes increasingly difficult to afford ever longer retirements，” said the BBC. “Something has to give， and working longer is the obvious solution.” There have even been discussions about raising the U.S. retirement age from 65 to as old as 70.

美国的老年人医疗保险和社会保障等制度依赖年轻人的贡献，因此将受到人口下降的影响。“随着预期寿命的增加，人们退休后的日子越来越长，但负担也越来越重。”英国广播公司表示，“必须有所取舍，延长工作年限显然是解决方案。”甚至有人讨论将美国的退休年龄从65岁提高到70岁。

The changing population can also drastically alter the demographics of the nation. “America’s population is growing at about the same rate as those of Britain and France，” said The Economist. “But America is different from Britain or France in that its population is much more prone to move around the country. Some parts of America are extraordinarily successful at attracting new people.” This is problematic because “once a place starts shrinking， it can set in motion reinforcing cycles that accelerate the decline.” For example， “when there is far more housing available than people to fill it， the result tends to be a collapse in the value of homes.”

一个国家人口数量的变化也会导致人口结构的剧变。“美国人口的增长速度与英国和法国大致相同。”《经济学人》报道，“但美国与英国或法国的不同之处在于，其人口在全国范围内流动的倾向要明显得多。美国一些地区在吸引外来人口方面非常成功。”这会带来问题，因为“一旦某地开始萎缩，就会启动强化循环，加速该地的衰退”。例如，“可供居住的房子远远多于居住人口时，结果往往是房价崩盘。”

No worries here

不必多虑

Despite the apparent negatives of an aging population， there are also benefits. To begin with， this is the result of “people living healthier and longer lives，” and it will result in “reduced needs for infrastructure and lower ecological impacts2，” said conservation biologist Kirsten Stade in an opinion piece for Newsweek. A growing population is more taxing on the environment， requiring more resources and electricity. “Providing even ‘green’ energy for 8 billion and counting will have ecological impacts that are seldom discussed，” Stade added.

尽管人口老龄化的负面影响显而易见，但也有好处。首先，正如保护生物学家柯尔斯滕·斯塔德在《新闻周刊》的一篇观点性文章中所说，人口老龄化是“人们活得更健康、更长寿”的结果，进而会“减少对基础设施的需求，降低对生态的冲击”。不断增长的人口给环境带来的压力更大，因为会需要更多的资源和电力供应。“即便是为80多亿人提供‘绿色’能源，也会对生态产生冲击，但人们很少讨论这种影响。”斯塔德补充道。

People who are concerned over population declines may also fail to consider whether having more children is actually good for society. “Have studies shown that women and couples are happier if they have more children？ Not to my knowledge，” said Monica Hesse in a perspective piece for The Washington Post. “In fact， many show the opposite： that although children may bring tremendous joy， they also bring tremendous stress to marriages.” Having and raising children is a large responsibility that places a disproportionate3 burden on women.

担心人口下降的人可能也没有考虑过多生孩子是否真的对社会有益。“是否有研究表明多生孩子会让女性或夫妻双方更幸福？据我所知，没有。”莫尼卡·赫西在《华盛顿邮报》的一篇观点性文章中表示，“事实上，很多研究表明情况恰恰相反：尽管孩子可能会带来巨大喜悦，但他们也给婚姻带来巨大压力。”生育和抚养孩子是一份重大的责任，给女性施加的负担要比男性多得多。

There is also a bigger ethical question around dictating a required replacement rate in order to spur population growth. “There’s something that feels ugly around proclamations4 about what the population or the birth rate ‘should’ be，” said Kelsey Piper at Vox. “And there’s also something distasteful about viewing children instrumentally， about creating entire new human beings for the sake of some national project.”

为推动人口增长而规定必要的人口更替水平，其中存在一个更大的伦理问题。“宣称人口或出生率‘应该’是多少，让人感觉有点不妥。”《沃克斯》杂志的凯尔西·派珀说，“而且，将孩子视为工具，为某些国家层面的项目创造新生儿也有点令人反感。”

（译者单位：常州信息职业技术学院）