With a Shared Stake in the International Environment, Win-Win Cooperation is the Right Path -- International Situation in 2024 and China’s Diplomacy

The international situation remained tense and turbulent in 2024， with the constantly unfolding spillover of crises， escalating conflicts and widening rifts， especially with the hard-to-ease Ukraine crisis and the humanitarian crisis worsened by the turmoil in the Middle East. Humanity is suffering bitterly from the aftereffects of the COVID-19 pandemic， geopolitical conflicts， adjustments in major-country relations， abrupt changes in the environment and climate， the prevalence of protectionism and disruptions in industrial and supply chains. Many countries are thus trapped in mounting anxiety over disorientation of development and the future. The North-South divide continues to widen， with over 100 million people displaced and nearly 800 million suffering from hunger. It remains an arduous task to achieve the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Changing International Landscape -- Complex and Volatile International Situation

In his remarks at the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly on Sept. 24th， 2024， UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that “we are in an era of epic transformation， facing challenges unlike any we have ever seen ... we are edging towards the unimaginable， a powder keg that risks engulfing the world”. His concerns reflect the considerable complexity and uncertainty of the current international situation.

I. The Storm Is Coming -- International Transformation Presents Multiple Crises

If the 1990s were the early stage of international transformation and the early 21st century was a period of further accumulation and brewing， then after entering the 2020s， the international transformation has entered a new stage featuring increasingly sharp contradictions， frequent conflicts and lingering tension in major-country relations.

Humanity has not completely walked out of the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic， but is rather experiencing multiple crises that are rare to see. Global industrial and supply chains are disrupted; commodity prices continue to rise; risks of energy and food security are intertwined and the cybersecurity situation is increasingly complex， together with such rising global challenges as climate change， terrorism， cybersecurity， and biosecurity. Countries around the world are directing more attention to technological sovereignty， which can be particularly seen in the regulation of cross-border data flows， restrictions on technology exports and management of dependence on foreign technologies. International technological rules and standards may become new points of contradiction. Information warfare and cyber-attacks become new focuses of national security governance. Important resources like water， minerals and arable land are in such short supply that they may exacerbate conflicts and immigration issues in some regions. The world still faces the arduous task of poverty reduction and the fight against hunger.

II. The East Is Rising and the West Is Declining -- Global Development Is Experiencing the Dual Trend of Decline and Division

The distribution of global power continues to evolve along the trajectory of the rising East and the declining West and the East-West gap is thus significantly narrowed. Emerging powers are rising substantially， with the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO）， the BRICS’ addition and the collective rise of the Global South. Countries such as India and Brazil are witnessing rapid growth in their economic output. In terms of GDP， India overtook the United Kingdom to become the fifth biggest economy in 2024 and may further surpass Japan to become the fourth in 2025. Brazil may also exceed Canada in the same year. Developing countries have forged a stronger sense of coordination and solidarity. It is the common aspiration of the international community， especially the Global South， to seek solidarity and cooperation， rather than division and confrontation.

Major economies are growing on divergent paths and the world economy remains sluggish. Currently， the Group of Seven （G7） countries account for around one fourth of the global economic output and trade and one tenth of the world’s population. The US Council on Foreign Relations stated that the Group of Twenty （G20） has outperformed the G7 in terms of strength and prestige. With the twin impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis， European economy will hardly pick up in the next three to five years.

On the contrary， the strength of developing countries is growing steadily. According to the latest World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund （IMF）， global economic growth is projected at 3.2 percent in 2024， lower than 3.3 percent in 2023， with developed countries growing by 1.8 percent and developing countries by 4.2 percent. The gap in growth rates between developed economies and emerging markets and developing economies is projected to be 2.4 percent in both 2024 and 2025. No drastic change is expected in the traditional low-end manufacturing industry， but the development of such high-end manufacturing industries as chips and military weapons will be divergent. The global supply chains will move towards more exclusionary “de-globalization” and the “re-globalization” that depends on picking sides and geopolitics will impose sustained impacts on the world trade and economic system in the coming years. It is worth noting that as regional economic cooperation is strengthened in the Asia Pacific， Europe and Latin America and the African Continental Free Trade Area （AfCFTA） is constructed at an accelerating pace， the world is seeing the forming of different regional economic circles.