Opportunities, Challenges of High-Quality Development of China-ASEAN Economic and Trade Cooperation and Path Exploration

In October 2024， at the 27th China-ASEAN Leaders’ Meeting， the leaders of China and ten ASEAN nations announced the substantial conclusion of the China-ASEAN FTA 3.0 Upgrade Negotiations， and proposed that the two sides would strive to formally sign in 2025 the Protocol on Further Upgrading the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement and pertinent agreements under the Agreement. The upgraded version of the China-ASEAN FTA 3.0 has comprehensively expanded mutually beneficial cooperation in emerging areas of the region， strengthened integration and exchange of standards and regulations， and established institutional arrangements for high-quality development of regional economic and trade cooperation. This also marked a new stage of high-quality development of China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation.

Necessity for Our Times of High-Quality Development of China-Asean Economic and Trade Cooperation

In the 1990s， comprehensive normalization of relations between China and ASEAN member nations happened， and since then China-ASEAN relations have been upgraded from dialogue relationship to comprehensive dialogue partnership， and then to strategic partnership and comprehensive strategic partnership， and economic and trade cooperation has become the cornerstone of China-ASEAN bilateral relations. With the changes in international and regional situation， the status of China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation has continued to rise in China’s building a new development pattern and high-quality construction of Belt and Road Initiative （BRI）. Accelerating the high-quality development of China-Asean economic and trade cooperation has become a strategic choice for China’s foreign economic and trade cooperation under the new circumstances.

First， high-quality development of China-Asean economic and trade cooperation is the call of our times to respond to the changing international and regional situation. As the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change， geopolitical situation worsens， major-power strategic contest intensifies， anti-globalization is on the rise， protectionism becomes prevalent， where China’s foreign economic and trade cooperation is facing a new international situation and environment. At present， China-Asean relations are at the best stage in history， with economic and trade cooperation developing fast， cooperation in various fields deepening， but as reconstruction of global value chains speeds up， the United States（US）-led West has sought to decouple and cut off industrial and supply chains from China， seven ASEAN nations being included into the “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework” （IPEF）， and bringing about a series of new changes to China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation. After its trade war on China broke out， the US intensified its trade investigation on ASEAN countries， and ASEAN customs authorities strengthened management of country of origin application process， posing challenges to Chinese companies operating in ASEAN countries for detour export to US market. Meanwhile， Chinese exports of goods had impacts on local products of ASEAN countries， impacting on local products， causing discontent of local companies， and arousing reaction from some of the ASEAN countries. Against this background， promoting China-Asean economic and trade cooperation towards a stage of high-quality development is conducive to addressing relevant problems， that is， solving problems of development with high-quality development.

Second， high-quality development of China-Asean economic and trade cooperation is an important path for China to build a new pattern of double domestic and international development cycles. Under the new domestic and international circumstances， China called for speeding up the construction of a new development pattern in which the domestic cycle is the mainstay and the domestic and international cycles mutually reinforce each other. In the international economic cycle， with accelerated restructuring of the global value chains， especially since the economic and trade friction between China and the United States occurred， China’s foreign economic and trade pattern has undergone new changes. In China’s foreign trade， the proportion of the United States， the European Union， Japan and South Korea has decreased， while the proportion of ASEAN has increased significantly. ASEAN countries have been China’s largest trading partner for four years running， while China has been ASEAN’s largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years. According to Chinese customs statistics， in 2023， the bilateral trade volume between China and ASEAN was US$911.72 billion， accounting for 15.9% of China’s import and export trade volume. Among the top ten Chinese provinces， ASEAN is the largest trading partner of five provinces of Guangdong， Jiangsu， Shandong， Fujian and Sichuan; among the top ten import and export trading Chinese cities， ASEAN is the largest trading partner of five cities of Shenzhen， Suzhou， Dongguan， Xiamen and Qingdao. Therefore， as a trading partner， ASEAN’s position in China’s international economic cycle is self-evident. Further promoting the high-quality development of China-Asean bilateral economic and trade cooperation is highly significant to the construction of a new development pattern featuring dual domestic and international circulations.

Third， high-quality development of China-Asean economic and trade cooperation will contribute to deepening and consolidating high-quality BRI construction. At present， the joint BRI construction has entered a new stage of high-quality development. China has put forward the strategic goal， key direction and development path of high-quality joint BRI construction in the next decade， that is， adhere to the principle of extensive consultation， joint contribution and shared benefits， to that of open， green and clean development， and to that of high standards for people’s livelihood and sustainability in promoting high-quality joint BRI development to go deep and stable. ASEAN is one of China’s most important neighborhood regions and also a priority direction for high-quality joint BRI construction. Among all the countries and regions of joint BRI construction， ASEAN ranks first in its overall economic scale， import and export trade and absorption of foreign direct investment. In the import and export trade between China and all other BRI countries， China-ASEAN bilateral trade accounted for 32.9%; among China’s top ten trading partners， six are ASEAN countries; and from 2013 to 2023， ASEAN’s direct investment in China accounting for 52.1% of that of all other joint BRI construction countries in China. At the end of 2023， China’s direct investment in ASEAN countries accounted for 52.4% of all its direct investment in all other joint BRI construction countries， seven of the top ten countries in terms of investment stock being ASEAN ones. Being the first FTA established by China abroad， China-ASEAN FTA not only highlights the comprehensive effect of trade and investment， but also stands for an example of “south-south cooperation” in regional economic integration.