New Developments in the Security Situation in China’s Neighborhood and the Building of a Community with a Shared Future for Neighbors

The world is undergoing a new round of turbulence and changes， with severe conflicts in multiple regions. This has far-reaching implications for the evolution of the international situation. In this context， China’s neighboring regions have been impacted in many ways， and the security situation in the neighborhood is undergoing complex changes. This inevitably affects the building of a community with a shared future in the region.

New Developments in China’s Neighborhood Security

Since 2020， the world has faced multiple security challenges as a result of intense strategic competition from the United States against China. Among them， COVID-19 represents the most significant non-conventional security shock in the past century. The Ukraine crisis， the largest armed conflict since the end of the Cold War， has generated extensive geopolitical repercussions for the international community. The latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has produced a series of knock-on effects in the Middle East. Under the influence of these conventional and non-conventional security challenges， the security situation in China’s neighborhood is undergoing new changes.

Firstly， the United States’ strategic competition against China is wide-ranging and long-lasting， with a systemic impact on the international and regional order. The U.S. perceives China as the only nation capable of challenging its global dominance in economic， security， and technological fields. Although the protracted Ukraine crisis poses real challenge to the U.S. foreign policy， the U.S. maintains its focus and pressure on China， and continues to regard China as the biggest strategic rival in the coming decades. Against this backdrop， some new changes have emerged in the China-U.S. relationship： First， China has demonstrated resilience against U.S. strategic pressure. It is difficult for the U.S. anti-China strategy to yield decisive results within a short timeframe. This has prompted the U.S. to make tactic adjustments to its strategy to seek an approach that inflicts less harm on its domestic economy and is thus more sustainable. Second， the U.S. continues to strengthen integration of its alliance and partnership system to strengthen the anti-China force on the basis of “Indo-Pacific Strategy”. Notably， it seeks to draw New Zealand into AUKUS while reinforcing trilateral security cooperation among the U.S.， Japan， and ROK and the United States-Philippines alliance to augment the operation capabilities of U.S. forces in the vicinity of China. Third， despite the intensified U.S.-China competition， some factors are at play to keep the bilateral relationship from being derailed. For example， the complex interdependence between China and the United States is an objective reality developed over an extended historical period and is difficult to sever. A rapid and brutal decoupling will have a direct impact on the U.S. economy， which is something the United States cannot afford. Both countries are major military powers and nuclear states， and the cost of a large-scale military conflict is too great for either side. Despite intense U.S. containment and unjustified suppression， China maintains that there is no life-and-death competition between the United States and China， and that it is not a zero-sum relationship. China actively strives for fundamental stability in China-U.S. relations and has not given up efforts to cooperate with the U.S. in a number of important areas. At the San Francisco summit meeting in November 2023， President Xi Jinping noted that “China does not intend to overtake or replace the United States” and “the success of each other is an opportunity for both.” In addition， the gradual resumption of military exchanges， the more intensive high-level meetings， as well as the largely smooth channels of communication are conducive to maintaining the basic stability of China-U.S. relations.

Secondly， armed conflicts in other parts of the world have a spillover effect on China’s neighboring regions. The Ukraine crisis， which began in February 2022， has persisted for two years. While the impact of the Ukraine crisis persists， a new round of Israel-Palestine conflict erupted in October 2023， evolving into Israel’s sustained military operations in the Gaza Strip， with multiple Middle Eastern countries and the U.S. becoming involved or drawn in various ways. The two conflicts not only undermine stability in Europe and the Middle East but also have spillover effects on other regions. Frequent international conflicts have eroded the confidence of China’s neighboring countries in world peace and affected their perceptions of how countries around the world behave. Their expectations for international cooperation are less stable， and their confidence in the future development of the world has weakened. Both crises display signs of prolongation and have taken a course that was not initially anticipated by major parties. They vividly demonstrate the brutality of armed conflicts and the high level of uncertainty inherent in warfare. While worsening the international security situation， they also pushed China’s neighboring countries to reflect on the consequences of the use of force.

Thirdly， the security mindset of small and medium-sized countries is undergoing subtle changes in the volatile international context. Outbreaks of large-scale armed conflicts have worsened the international security situation， exposing the fragility of the overall security environment. Compared to major powers， small and medium-sized countries often feel these vulnerabilities more acutely due to their limited military strength and capacity to shape their security environments. Just a few years ago， most such countries believed that the international environment in which they lived was generally stable， with their sovereignty and security largely guaranteed. The successive occurrence of international conflicts has made many small and medium-sized countries further realize the fragility of their own security autonomy and their inadequate capacity to restrain the behavior of major powers. Consequently， they are having a stronger awareness for strength through unity. This is reflected in stronger goodwill of Southeast Asian countries towards countries and international organizations such as Japan， the European Union and New Zealand， and the decline in their trust in the United States and Russia in recent years. As long as major power competition persists and international instability continues， this change in the security mindset of small and medium-sized countries will continue and may have serious international consequences.