Predicaments and Prospects of European Social Democracy Amidst Multiple Crises

The global financial crisis， the refugee crisis， the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine crisis have been compounded with one another， bringing a heavy blow to European economy and society. Meanwhile， center-left parties in most of the European countries are suffering severe electoral setbacks with a steep decline in public support for various reasons. European social democracy is obviously losing its way and how to break the current predicaments becomes its highest priority.

Decline of European Social Democratic Parties

The ultimate goal of European social democracy is to “tame capitalism” and enhance social solidarity and equality. It advocates income redistribution through state intervention， and supports using macroeconomic regulations to ensure that economic development serves the interests of the general public， so that the capitalist society will become more democratic， just， and united. European social democrats， therefore， are often labeled as “spokesmen for the vulnerable”.

From the end of the World War II to the early 1970s， Europe enjoyed rapid economic and social advances， giving rise to the development of social democratic parties. In this period of time， center-left parties took the initiative in shaping the values of social democracy， promoting social reforms， and correcting the flaws of capitalism. They identified themselves as reformist parties in a capitalist system. In the mid-1970s， the prevalent stagflation crisis in Europe brought challenges to the traditional welfare state system and led to the rise of neoliberalism. European countries then decided to turn right and their economic policies focused more on efficiency. Center-left parties， with concerns for electoral performance and pressure from the competitors， began to uphold pragmatism and passively accept some political ideas and policies of the right-wing camp. They gradually moved away from the tradition and goals of social democracy. At the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century， social democracy， once again， became popular and set off a pink tide in Europe， with all 15 EU member states but Spain and Ireland being governed or co-governed by center-left parties.

The 2008 financial crisis and the tide of globalization directly resulted in the fall of European social democracy. The COVID-19 pandemic further exacerbated inequality and wealth disparity in Europe， making the underclass increasingly dissatisfy with center-left parties. Despite the upturn of social democratic parties in some European countries in 2021， the momentum was once again interrupted by the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing refugee crisis. The center-left parties in major EU countries such as Germany and France witnessed an obvious decline. Although the Social Democratic Party of Germany won the 2021 federal election and ended the 16 years’ governing of center-right parties， it had to form a coalition government with the Green Party and the Free Democratic Party due to a low vote share. And its popularity has been decreasing since then， with a support rate of only 15% in January this year， behind the center-right Christian Democratic Union and the far-right Alternative for Germany. In 2012， the French Socialist Party’s candidate Francois Hollande won the second round of the presidential election with 52% of the vote. But it has lost its way since then. In the 2022 legislative election， with single-digit support， the Socialist Party had to form an alliance with other left-wing parties to run for the election. The Socialist Party’s failure is partly attributed to the lack of innovation in policy making， which is common to see in many other European left-wing parties.

The Labour Party in the UK suffered four consecutive defeats in general elections since 2010. However， over the past three years， its support rate has steadily increased to become the most popular political party in the UK. Its current leader Sir Keir Starmer takes a centrist approach with focus on social welfare and public services. He is striving to make the party appealing and convincing to win next general election.

In Northern Europe， the long-standing governing position of the center-left parties is under threat. The Social Democratic Party， the largest party in Sweden， has a cumulative governance of 72 years. But after the outbreak of the European debt crisis， it was surpassed by the Moderate Coalition Party in the 2010 general election， the first time in history and its support rate plummeted from nearly 50% to below 30%. In Finland， the Social Democratic Party won the highest number of votes in two of seven parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2023， and remained in the top four in the rest. In 2006， the party won the presidential election， but then its support rate has fallen and gradually lost its advantage. In Norway， the Labour Party won more votes than other parties in six parliamentary elections since the beginning of this century and maintained its position as the ruling party for many consecutive years. However， its support rate has dropped to below 20% since 2021 while that of the Conservative Party has been on the rise to over 30%. The Social Democratic Party in Denmark is an exception. It was in power， either alone or in coalition in 2011， 2019， and 2022. The Party has been centrist on economic and social policies and conservative on immigration and integration issues. Its approach has alleviated public concerns about immigrants excessively enjoying welfare benefits and the emergence of “parallel societies”.

In Southern Europe， the fall of Greece’s center-left parties is an extreme example. The Panhellenic Socialist Movement won the 2009 election with 43.92% of the votes. However， after the outbreak of the European debt crisis， the Troika （the European Commission， the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund） imposed coercive austerity measures on Greece， leading to a rapid decline and loss of power of the Panhellenic Socialist Movement. Italy has also seen a gradual decline of its Democratic Party. The party held power from 2006 to 2008 and again from 2013 to 2018， but was challenged by the anti-establishment “Five Star Movement” in the 2018 election and lost almost all its votes in southern Italy， Sardinia， and Sicily. In Spain， the decline of the Socialist Workers’ Party has been very noticeable since 2008. It was the largest party in the 2008 Spanish parliamentary election with 43.9% of the popular vote， but saw a drop to 28.8% in the 2011 election. Although it returned to power in 2019， the support rate was only 28.7%. To maintain its advantage in the parliament， the Socialist Workers’ Party formed a ruling coalition with the far-left parties. Portugal is an exception. The Socialist Party has stayed ahead since 2012. Its leader António Costa was elected as the Prime Minister in 2015 and was successfully re-elected in 2019 and 2022. His success is mainly attributed to the stable economic growth during his tenure.