Global Economic and Trade Landscape Reshaping and High-Quality Belt and Road Cooperation
作者: Xu Xiujun
At present, a new round of revolution in science, technology and industry is developing profoundly. The global economic and trade development pattern and cooperation mode are also under crucial adjustments. These have brought new challenges and opportunities for promoting trade connectivity included in the Belt and Road Initiative, and have also endowed the initiative a new role in the reshaping of the global economic and trade landscape. With the deepening of the high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, global economy and trade will develop towards the goal of benign interaction in a stable, balanced and coordinated way.
New Features of Evolution of the Global Landscape of Economy and Trade
In recent years, driven by external shocks and internal momentum transformation, the global landscape of economy and trade has entered a period of profound restructuring, showing five new features.
The first is the differentiation among economies on global economic and trade growth. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the rise of developing countries has accelerated. Despite the severe impacts of the 2008 international financial crisis and the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020, the growth rates of emerging markets and developing economies are still generally higher than those of developed economies. In terms of international trade and investment, emerging markets and developing economies have also experienced better growth and a rising international profile. The same applies to the development of international direct investment.
The second is the digitization of global trade and economic patterns. Among global technological innovations, the information and digital fields witnessed most of the technological breakthroughs. With the increasingly widespread application of digital technology, new industries, new forms and new models are emerging, driving rapid growth in the digital economy and trade. Meanwhile, cross-border digital service trade has also shown rapid growth momentum. Developed economies occupy a dominant position in global digital trade, but digital trade in developing countries has grown faster in recent years. The proportion of developed economies’ exports of digital transmission services trade in 2021 accounted for 77.9% of the world, a decrease of 8.3 percentage points from 2005.
The third is the decarbonization of the global economic and trade structure. The development of a low-carbon economy has far-reaching implications for global trade and investment. In terms of trade, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions has increasingly become the goal and mission of countries’ trade practices. The proportion of high-pollution, high-carbon-emission and high-energy-consumption products in global trade will continue to decline. Although low-carbon trade is in line with the concept and goal of sustainable development and is in the interest of all countries in the long run, in the short term, the foreign trade of developing countries with lower levels of technology and development will face more tests and challenges. In terms of investment, environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards are increasingly accepted and applied by the international community, so traditional investment and financing methods continue to transform. At the same time, many countries have imposed restrictions on specific investment fields and industries, and have raised investment standards and environmental responsibility of enterprises.
The fourth is the politicization of global economic and trade relations. Some developed economies are keener to view economic and trade relations from the perspective of geopolitics and national security. They paint normal economic and trade relations with thick political color and hype up the so-called threat of economic and trade security on domestic and diplomatic occasions. In the area of trade, some developed economies have frequently taken advantage of their dominant position in the global trading system to launch unilateral actions against other countries, impose economic sanctions and provoke trade wars, seriously interfering and disrupting normal trade exchanges. In the area of investment, some developed economies have abused security concepts to restrict normal foreign capital inflows, and have taken targeted restrictive measures against some countries and enterprises, increasing the instability, uncertainty and unpredictability of cross-border investment.
The fifth is the weaponization of the global economic and trade mechanism. Due to the deliberate obstruction of certain countries, the reform of governance mechanisms of such as the WTO, the IMF, the World Bank and the G20 has been slow. These mechanisms have not only failed to maintain the global economic order, but also been reduced to a tool or even a weapon for a handful of countries to engage in geopolitical games and suppress other countries.
The New Role of Belt and Road in the Restructuring of Global Economic and Trade Landscape
Along with the proposal and practice of the Belt and Road Initiative, the economic and trade development of the participating countries has entered a new stage. Against the backdrop of the profound restructuring of the global economic and trade landscape, Belt and Road cooperation is playing an increasingly important role in the following four aspects.
First, it provides a strong impetus for global economic and trade growth. At present, global economic and trade exchanges have been seriously hampered, and the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation has failed to keep pace with the requirements of global economic and trade development. It also has declined in some fields and industries. As the Belt and Road Initiative continues to make progress, the level of trade and investment liberalization and facilitation in the participating countries has been rising, creating favorable conditions for fostering the momentum of trade growth and enhancing the effectiveness of investment. Initiative on Promoting Unimpeded Trade Cooperation along the Belt and Road launched by China sets promoting trade growth, energizing two-way investment and promoting inclusive and sustainable development as the three major objectives of economic and trade cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. It also promotes and expands trade exchanges through trade facilitation, the development of new business models, and the promotion of cooperation in service trade, and strengthens investment cooperation, so as to jointly fulfill the commitment to promote the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. This initiative has received positive responses and participation from more than 80 countries and international organizations. At the same time, the Belt and Road Initiative emphasizes cooperation in scientific and technological innovation, and actively promotes the research and development, as well as application of technologies of the participating countries, so as to create impetus and vitality for economic and trade growth through technological progress.