China-US Rivalry of the Century amid Great Changes

Since the global financial crisis in 2008， frictions between China and the United States have been growing， as the backlash against globalization is on the rise. Such frictions， emerging during the Obama administration， became fully public during the Trump administration. After the Biden administraation took office， the China-US relations， though more “diplomatic” in appearance， have seen the inherent divisions widening. The China-US conflicts have become an integral part of the entrenched China perception of the Deep State. With the evolution of the international landscape accelerated by COVID-19， the interactions between China and the United States are being shown more visibly than ever to the world.

China vs. US on key fronts

By comparing China and the US in COVID-19 response， economic recovery， education， science and technology， domestic governance and global governance， it seems fair to say that the scale of competition is increasingly tilted toward China.

In COVID-19 response， the disappointing outcome in the US contrasts starkly with the situation in China， which has effectively controlled the virus by containing the increase of infections and deaths. The American government， on the other hand， has fallen short of leading the country in tackling the disease head-on. China has also taken an active part in international cooperation by lending support to the COVAX Facility and the World Health Organization （WHO）， proposing to make COVID-19 vaccines a global public good and providing vaccines and PPEs to other countries. Those moves speak volumes about China’s ever growing soft power.

In economic recovery and development， the US has also been dwarfed by China. The year 2020 witnessed a 27.4% increase in China’s trade surplus over the previous year， a surge in its foreign exchange reserve and a 2.3% rise in its GDP， a sharp contrast with the shrinkage of 4% and 10% of the US and EU respectively. When the Cold War ended in the early 1990s， the share of China’s and America’s GDP in the world economy was 3.86% and 20.6% respectively. Fast forward to 2018， the share of the US was reduced to 15% while that of China surged to 18.6% in purchasing power parity （PPP） terms. China’s economic size will probably outstrip that of the US by 2030. China now stands as the No.1 exporter and holder of foreign exchange reserve， and the only major economy with no massive foreign debt. China has also amazed the world by achieving its set goal of eliminating absolute poverty as scheduled， despite COVID-19.

In education， the gap is quickly narrowing down. The US remains a bellwether in basic science， from the perspective of research institutions led by national labs and private universities. Still， America’s investment in those fields has almost been halved compared with the Reagan era. Only 5% of university students in the US are studying engineering， while the number in China is 1/3. China is cultivating a new generation of university students in a large scale. As education always features prominently in the Chinese civilization， science and innovation are regarded as key factors in realizing socialist modernization by 2035. Over the years， China’s educational prowess has surpassed America’s in areas critical to scientific innovation including engineering， computer science and mathematics. The number of scientists and engineers cultivated by China is six times that of the US， outnumbering the sum of the US， the EU， Japan and ROK. The number of doctorates of China in STEM （Science， Technology， Engineering and Mathematics） is twice of America’s.

In high-tech areas， the competition is fierce. China is doing great in artificial intelligence （AI）， 5G， digital currency and encryption. China’s COVID-19 response epitomizes the might of the fourth industrial revolution as represented by big data and AI. China and the US are major rivals of each other in quantum computer， dubbed as the “Holy Grail” in the 21st century. 150 unicorn companies with a market value of over 1 billion US dollars have emerged in China， accounting for 46% of the world total. The number in the US is 107， or 33% of the world total. Those achievements are largely attributed to the hefty input of China and its orderly opening up to foreign capital.

In domestic governance， China has shown its edge. The fourth scientific and technological revolution featured by the great leap of AI and ICT is impacting the existing labor relations in capitalist countries including the US. Despite a surge in productivity， employment and per capita income in those countries have either stagnated or shrunk. With social wealth rapidly concentrated， the top 1% richest are getting still richer. Although the scientific and technological revolution is a natural product of human activities， the nation must play its due role in the social sphere. That is exactly what China has done forcefully. It has launched a host of massive infrastructure projects in remote provinces with relatively low ROI in the short term. Though such strategies may have lowered China’s potential GDP growth， their significance should never be underestimated in eliminating poverty and bridging regional wealth gap.