How to “Rebreak the Ice” Between China and the U.S. After 50 Years?

ACCURATE COMMAND OF EVOLUTION IN INTERNATIONAL PATTERN AS FOUNDATION OF “RE-BREAKING THE ICE” BETWEEN CHINA AND THE U.S.

Evolution and reorganization of the international pattern is a decisive structural force for major-country relations. The fundamental reason for the leaders of both countries to break the ice between China and the U.S. fifty years ago was their acute command of the new international reality. Fifty years later， it remains true today that accurate judgment of a pattern-change and planning foreign policy accordingly is the foundation for “breaking the ice” once more in China-U.S. relations.

From the founding of New China to 1972， China and the U.S. had been separated for more than twenty years， mainly because of the bipolar pattern of the Cold War. From the late 1960s to the early 1970s， the international pattern had undergone major changes： the Cold War having evolved from “the U.S. being on the offensive whereas the Soviet Union （USSR） being on the defensive” to “the USSR being on the offensive whereas the U.S. being on the defensive”， the independent tendency of Europe and Japan being on the rise; China-Soviet relations having broken-down， entangled in difficulties at home and abroad， the U.S. entering a period of relative weakness， and having successfully tested the A-Bomb， the H-Bomb and the artificial satellite， China becoming an independent center of force in the world. The leaders of China and the U.S. accurately grasped the above macro changes and timely put forward a series of new policies.

On the Chinese side， the CPC Central Committee strengthened the assessment of the international situation， coming up with the strategic judgments such as that “among the three forces of China， the U.S. and the USSR， the contradictions and struggle between the U.S. and the USSR are ‘permanent and acute’， that ‘the contradictions between China and the USSR are greater than that between China and the U.S.， and that the contradictions between the U.S. and the USSR are greater that that between China and the USSR’”. On the American side， after becoming U.S. President， Nixon put forward “Nixonism”， which among others called for U.S. allies to take up more defense responsibilities， “vietnamization of the Vietnam War”， and retrenchment of U.S. force in Asia， so as to better deal with difficulties at home and abroad.

The great significance of the Shanghai Communique rests with declaring “breaking the ice” between China and the U.S.， but more important， with the fact that after the changes happened to the international pattern， China and the U.S. made efforts to coordinate their strategies. At present， the international pattern is once again undergoing extremely important changes， and against such changes， it is necessary for China and the U.S. to re-clarify each other’s positions and re-define each other’s strategies. This is the similarity between now and fifty years ago. However， the effect of the pattern-change this time around may far exceed the previous ones. In some 200 years of the history of China-U.S. relations， China for the first time is more and more equal in strength as the U.S. and the country is increasingly self-confident in its path， theory， institutions and culture. Such changes will take a process for the U.S. and the rest of world to adapt to and accept. Likewise， it is also necessary for China’s strategic circle to accurately understand and forecast the future position of the U.S. in the international pattern. After such repositioning， it is necessary for China and the U.S. to respectively readjust their strategies. Whether and when both countries can coordinate their strategies like fifty years ago， the prospect is not clear. At best， it is very difficult for them to come up with a jointly written common document like the Shanghai Communique fifty years before in a short period of time. As the pattern-change this time around is far more profound than the previous ones， both sides may need longer time.

FULL UNDERSTANDING OF COMMON INTERESTS AS THE KEY TO CHINA-U.S. RE-BREAKING THE ICE

Convergence and conflict of national interests is the driving force for adjustment of major-country relations. “Breaking the ice” between China and the U.S. fifty years ago was a result of the leaders of both countries to reconsider their respective national interests in the spirit of extremely clear-minded realism. Fifty years later， it remains the key to “breaking the ice once more” between China and the U.S. whether both countries can accurately understand the common interests between them under seemingly less than extremely urgent circumstances.

Between major countries， there never lack common interests. However， it is essential to be able to realize their common interests. Since the late 1960s， China had returned to the thinking of foreign policy analysis of a sovereign country as it looked at the U.S. and the USSR. Conversely， the Nixon administration known for it being “right-wing” had been able to realize the differentiation and differences between China and the USSR， to realize the common interests between the U.S. and China in checking and balancing the USSR， averting war， and on the hot spot issues in Asia， and to move towards relaxation with China， which also reflected clear-minded realist thinking.

Fifty years later， the rich content of China-U.S. relations is far beyond comparison than ever before. On global plane， there are common interests between China and the U.S. in climate change， public health， macroeconomic stability， strategic stability and so on; on regional plane， the Iran nuclear issue， the Korean nuclear issue， and security and stability of Afghanistan all need China-U.S. cooperation; and on bilateral plane， China-U.S. economic and trade relations and cultural exchange attest to the fact that China and the U.S. both stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation. Of course， there are major differences between both countries in ideology， social system， and development model. However， such differences are far less significant than fifty years ago. The fact that the common interests between China and the U.S. cannot outweigh their differences can attribute to that what their common interests are opposed to like climate change seems to be less urgent than what they faced fifty years ago.

When having a phone call with U.S. President Biden on September 10th， 2021， President Xi Jinping observed that “China and the United States need to show broad vision and shoulder great responsibilities”. It is necessary for China and the U.S. from top level downward guide respective countries to consider common interests between them in the spirit of “broad vision” and “greater responsibilities”. Between China and the U.S.， there are two categories of common interests calling for great attention.  First， global challenges can profoundly change the world， and profoundly harm the interests of all countries， as the COVID-19 pandemic that has lasted for more than two year illustrates how global issues do not belong to a far away future but the immediate present， and they do not challenge just other countries but threaten all of the countries. Second， it is necessary to prevent security issues from “unconscious sliding”， so as to guarantee “peaceful coexistence” between China and the U.S. as called for by the Chinese side. Fifty years ago， China and the U.S. listed it an important common interest in the Shanghai Communique that “Both wish to reduce the danger of international military conflict”， a common point having lasted for fifty years and becoming more crucial today.