When Is It Too Late to Give Up Control of Your Finances?自己管钱，想放手时已太晚？

America is getting older. By 2050， one-fifth of the U.S. population is projected to be over the age of 65. And the way we’re aging is changing， too. Older people today are more responsible for managing their finances than they were in the past.

美国正在变老。预计到2050年，1/5美国人将超过65岁，而我们变老的过程也在发生变化。比起过去的老年人，今天的老年人在管理自己的财务方面更加尽责。

Yet there’s no escaping an uncomfortable fact of old age： Nearly 20 percent of Americans 65 or older have cognitive impairment， and nearly 10 percent have dementia.

然而，我们无法逃避一个令人不安的老龄化事实：65岁或以上的美国人中，近20%有认知障碍，近10%患有痴呆。

The intersection of these demographic， financial， and health care trends raises difficult questions about how older people should balance their desire to manage their own money with the possibility of cognitive decline. Do they have someone who can step in to help them if necessary？ And will they recognize that they need help before making a costly mistake or getting ripped off？

人口、金融和医疗保健方面的趋势相互交织，从而引发难题，即老年人该如何在管控自己财富的欲望与可能面临的认知功能衰退之间取得平衡。他们是否已有人选，能在必要时介入并帮助他们？他们能否在犯下代价高昂的错误或被诈骗之前，意识到自己需要帮助？

New research by Christopher Tonetti， an associate professor of economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research （SIEPR）， finds that older investors are acutely aware of this challenge. “People are very concerned about their future self not handing over financial control when they should，” he says.

克里斯托弗·托内蒂是斯坦福大学商学院的经济学副教授，也是斯坦福大学经济政策研究所的高级研究员。他的新研究发现，老年投资者已清醒地意识到挑战。他说：“人们非常担心未来的自己没能在应该移交的时候把财务掌控权移交出去。”

Preparing for the handoff

准备移交

Working with John Ameriks of The Vanguard Group1 and three other academics—Andrew Caplin of New York University， Minjoon Lee of Carleton University， and Matthew Shapiro of the University of Michigan—Tonetti surveyed roughly 2，500 Vanguard clients 55 and older on how they’ve prepared to manage their finances into the future. （The participants were wealthier and more educated than a representative sample of older Americans， and likely savvier with their money.）

联手先锋领航集团的约翰·阿梅里克斯和另外三名学者——纽约大学的安德鲁·卡普林、卡尔顿大学的李敏俊（音译）以及密歇根大学的马修·夏皮罗——托内蒂对约2500名55岁及以上的先锋领航客户展开调查，了解他们为日后个人财务管理所做的准备。（受访者比典型的美国老人拥有更多财富，受过更多教育，而且在理财方面可能也更加精明。）

Overall， the respondents had a pretty realistic sense of their likelihood of experiencing cognitive decline. （On average， they put their chances of having cognitive decline for at least five years at 29 percent; the actual number is 34 percent.） Most said they already had a family member or friend waiting in the wings who could take control of managing their money. “A lot of people came back saying they had someone available who they trusted would do a good job，” Tonetti says. “That was a bit of a surprise.”

总体而言，受访者对自身出现认知功能衰退的可能性有着相当现实的认识。（平均来看，他们认为自己最快会在5年内出现认知功能衰退的可能性为29%；而实际的可能性为34%。）大多数受访者说他们已有家人或朋友随时待命，能够接管他们的财富。“很多人回复说，已有自己信任且能胜任的人选。”托内蒂说，“这有点出乎意料。”

Anticipating the timing of this potential handoff， however， is not easy. Understandably， many people do not want to bring in an outside financial agent too soon， sacrificing their ability to make decisions for themselves. Nearly 84 percent of survey respondents said they would not want to give up financial control at the onset of cognitive decline， preferring to wait for a moment before they would completely lose the ability to manage their own money. Yet many respondents also realized they might delay transferring control of their finances because they would not recognize their own cognitive decline.

然而，预测潜在的移交时机并不容易。很多人不愿过早引入外部财务代理人，这是可以理解的，毕竟让外人代为理财就意味着舍弃自主决定的能力。近84%的受访者表示，他们不想在刚出现认知功能衰退的时候就放弃财务掌控权，更希望在自己彻底丧失管理个人财富的能力之前再坚持一段时间。但很多受访者也意识到自己可能会耽误财务掌控权的移交，因为他们未必能够发现自身的认知功能出现衰退。

“Most people were concerned that they would hold on to control longer than they should and， by doing this， increase the chance that they would make a big mistake with their finances，” Tonetti says. If they were suffering cognitive decline and it got too far along， “they might make poor investment decisions or be more subject to scams and fraud.”

托内蒂说：“大多数人担心自己掌控财务的时间超过理应掌控的时间，那会增加自己在财务上犯大错的可能性。”一旦他们出现认知功能衰退且病情一发不可收拾，那么“他们可能会做出糟糕的投资决策，或者更容易上当受骗”。

The researchers probed how much people would be willing to pay to optimize the timing of this handover. Importantly， Tonetti says， the survey didn’t ask this hypothetical question directly， as people would have difficulty answering it. Rather， the survey design made it possible to analytically deduce the figure. The researchers found that one-quarter of the respondents were willing to pay more than $50，000 to ensure a transfer at the right time. Roughly 15 percent were willing to pay more than $100，000.

研究人员调查了人们愿意支付多少钱来优化移交的时间安排。托内蒂说，要重点指出的是，调查本身并未直接提出这个假设性问题，因为人们很难回答，而此项调查专门设计的问题能让研究人员分析推断出数据。他们发现，1/4受访者愿意支付5万美元以上来确保在恰当的时间完成移交。约15%的受访者愿意支付10万美元以上。

Considering the risks， why don’t older people transfer the management of their finances sooner？ That they don’t illumin-ates a key insight from this research： People want to maintain control of their own finances for as long as possible. What drives this desire， Tonetti says， is not clear. It could be a belief that they’ll do a better job than their surrogates. They may enjoy the process， or perhaps they don’t want to be a burden to others. Whatever their motivation， “there is this desire to control their finances when capable，” Tonetti says. “That wasn’t obvious before we wrote this paper.”