Who Wouldn’t Like Prices to Start Falling? 谁不想让物价下跌？

Many Americans are in a sour mood about the economy for one main reason： Prices feel too high.

许多美国人对经济情况感到不满，一个主要原因是物价太高了。

Maybe they’re not rising as fast as they had been， but average prices are still painfully above where they were three years ago. And they’re mostly heading higher still.

或许物价上涨的速度没有之前那么快，但其平均价格依然远超2021年的水平，而且大多数商品价格仍在持续上涨。

Consider a 2-liter bottle of soda： In February 2021， before inflation began heating up， it cost an average of $1.67 in supermarkets across America. Three years later？ That bottle is going for $2.25—a 35% increase.

以一瓶2升装苏打水为例：在通货膨胀升温前的2021年2月，它在美国各地超市的平均售价为1.67美元。而三年后呢？这瓶苏打水的价格为2.25美元——上涨了35%。

Or egg prices. They soared in 2022， then fell back down. Yet they’re still 43% higher than they were three years ago.

再看看鸡蛋的价格。鸡蛋的售价于2022年飙升，随后回落，但其价格较三年前仍高出43%。

Likewise， the average used-car price： It rocketed from roughly $23，000 in February 2021 to $31，000 in April 2022. By last month， the average was down to $26，752. But that’s still up 16% from February 2021.

二手车的均价也是如此：从2021年2月的约2.3万美元飙升至2022年4月的3.1万美元。截至上个月，二手车均价降至2.6752万美元，相较于2021年2月仍高出16%。

Wouldn’t it be great if prices actually fell—what economists call deflation？ Who wouldn’t want to fire up a time machine and return to the days before the economy rocketed out of the pandemic recession and sent prices soaring？

如果物价真的下跌——也就是发生经济学家所说的通货紧缩——那该多好啊？谁不想坐上时光机，回到经济从疫情中强势复苏导致物价飙升之前的日子呢？

At least prices are now rising more slowly—what’s called disinflation. On Friday， for example， the government said a key price gauge rose 0.3% in February， down from a 0.4% gain in January. And compared with a year earlier， prices were up 2.5%， way down from a peak of 7.1% in mid-2022.

至少当前物价上涨的速度放缓了，即出现反通货膨胀。例如上周五，政府称某关键价格指标于2月份上涨了0.3%，低于1月份0.4%的涨幅。相较于2023年，物价同比上涨了2.5%，远低于2022年中期7.1%的峰值。

But those incremental improvements are hardly enough to please the public.

然而这些缓慢的改善不足以让大众满意。

“Most Americans are not just looking for disinflation，’’ Lisa Cook， a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors， said last year. “They’re looking for deflation. They want these prices to be back where they were before the pandemic.’’

“大多数美国人不仅盼着反通货膨胀，”美联储理事会成员丽莎·库克去年表示，“他们想看到通货紧缩，希望物价回归疫情之前的水平。”

Many economists caution， though， that consumers should be careful what they wish for. Falling prices across the economy would actually be an unhealthy sign.

但是，许多经济学家警告称，人们应该谨慎对待这一期望。在各个经济领域出现普遍的物价下跌实际上是一个不良信号。

“There are，’’ the Bank of England warns， “more consequences from falling prices than meets the eye1.’’

英格兰银行发出警告：“物价下跌带来的后果并非看上去那么简单。”

What could be so bad about lower prices？

那么，物价下跌有什么坏处呢？

What is deflation？

什么是通货紧缩？

Deflation is a widespread and sustained drop in prices across the economy. Occasional month-to-month drops in consumer prices don’t count. The United States hasn’t seen genuine deflation since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

通货紧缩是指经济中普遍且持续的价格下跌。偶尔发生的消费价格逐月下跌并不作数。美国自20世纪30年代的大萧条以来，就没有经历过真正的通货紧缩。

Japan has experienced a much more recent bout of deflation. It is only now emerging from decades of falling prices that began with the collapse of its property and financial markets in the early 1990s.

日本近期则经历了一阵通货紧缩。20世纪90年代初期，日本房地产和金融市场崩溃，由此引发数十年物价下跌，日本刚刚从这场动荡中走出来。

What’s wrong with deflation？

通货紧缩有什么问题？

“Although lower prices may seem like a good thing，’’ Banco de España， the Spanish central bank， says on its website， “deflation can in fact be highly damaging to the economy.’’

“虽然物价更低可能看起来是好事，”西班牙银行在其网站上表示，“但实际上，通货紧缩可能会对经济造成严重损害。”

How so？ Mainly because falling prices tend to discourage consumers from spending. Why buy now， after all， if you can purchase what you want—cars， furniture， appliances， vacations—at a lower price later？

这是为什么呢？主要是因为物价下跌往往会抑制消费者的购买欲望。如果你能在以后以更低的价格买到想要的东西，比如汽车、家具、电器、度假等等，为什么要现在买呢？

The reality is that the economy’s health depends on steady consumer purchases. In the United States， household spending accounts for around 70% of the entire economy. If consumers were to pull back， en masse， to await lower prices， businesses would face intense pressure to cut prices even more to try to jump-start sales.

而现实是经济健康依赖于稳定的消费支出。在美国，家庭支出约占整个经济的70%。如果消费者大规模延迟消费以等待更低的价格，企业将面临巨大的压力，不得不进一步降价以刺激销售。

In the meantime， employers might have to lay off waves of employees or cut pay—or both. Unemployed people， of course， are even less likely to spend， so prices would likely keep falling. All of which risks triggering a “deflationary spiral’’ of price cuts， layoffs， more price cuts， more layoffs. And on and on. Another recession could follow.

与此同时，雇主可能不得不进行一波又一波裁员或削减工资，或是二者并行。而失业的人更不可能消费，所以物价会进一步下跌。这些状况可能会引发“螺旋式通缩”，即降价、裁员、进一步降价、更多的裁员……如此循环往复，就可能会引发另一场经济衰退。

It was to prevent that very kind of economic nastiness that explains why the Bank of Japan resorted to negative interest rates in 2016 and why the Fed kept U.S. rates near zero for seven straight years during and after the Great Recession of 2007—2009.