Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions为何聪明人做出糟糕的决策

Will Rogers1 once famously said， “Common sense ain’t common.” Nobel Laureate psychologist2 Dr. Daniel Kahneman has proven that humans are not the rational beings we believe ourselves to be. But why？

威尔·罗杰斯有句名言：“常识并不常见。”诺贝尔奖获得者、心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼博士已经证实，人类并非我们自认为的那么理智。这是为何呢？

We live in a remarkably stressful age where we are overwhelmed with information. The news cycle was once only several hours， now it’s a full day. We are bombarded with “news，” which in many instances is neither interesting nor relevant， only different. And let us not forget the incessant3 bombardment4 with all types of “raw data，” much of which is incomplete. Human consciousness， and the brain that supports it， simply cannot withstand such overwhelming stimulation. It might come as a surprise to you， but the primary function of most of your brain’s physiology is to dampen5 and regulate arousal. Stress-related physical disorders are best understood as disorders of arousal. Overarousal cannot only cripple6 our bodies， but it can also cripple our minds. Findings from neuroscience have taught us that overarousal can play an important role in contributing to many of the poor decisions we make. If we can better understand how this happens， perhaps we can better prevent many actions we would later come to regret.

我们生活在一个异常紧张的时代，泛滥的信息让我们应接不暇。过去，新闻每隔几小时更新一次，如今则是全天不间断更新。我们被“新闻”轰炸，很多时候这些所谓的“新闻”既无趣也无实际意义，仅仅是内容不同罢了。别忘了，我们还不断遭受各类“原始数据”的侵袭，这些数据大部分是不完整的。人类的意识和维系它的大脑根本无法承受如此强烈的刺激。听起来你可能觉得奇怪，但大脑最主要的生理功能是抑制和调节兴奋。与压力相关的身体失调被普遍认为是兴奋失调。过度兴奋不仅会损害身体，还会侵蚀心智。神经科学的研究成果表明，在我们做出的很多糟糕决策中，过度兴奋都扮演着重要角色。如果我们能更好地理解其中的缘由，或许就能更好地避免做出可能会让人后悔的行为。

The brain creates error-prone7 simplifications

大脑的简化处理容易出错

In order to manage all of the data it must process in a day， the brain creates information-processing short-cuts， or simplifications. An information-processing simplification （sometimes called bias） is a processing filter that results from being confronted with an incomplete or overwhelming amount of information. Simplifications streamline8 or attempt to clarify large or incomplete data sets and allow us to reach decisions that would otherwise be daunting. They also conserve precious “mental energy.” As such， these simplifications are “default programs” for processing large amounts of data or for making decisions in stressful situations. These simplifications do indeed simplify decision making; most importantly， however， they often lead us to make mistakes. The worst part of this scenario is， in most cases， the more we are confronted with ambiguous or overwhelming amounts of information to process， the more we revert to these automatic error-prone decision-making simplifications. Thus， we learn to become better at making mistakes！

为了应对一天之中不得不处理的全部数据，大脑生成了信息处理的捷径，或称为信息简化处理。当大脑面对不完整或过量的信息时，就会进行信息简化处理（有时也被称为偏见），它是一种信息处理过滤器。简化处理能够高效处理或尝试厘清大量或不完整的数据集，这样我们下决定时就不会觉得格外棘手。简化处理还为我们节省了宝贵的“心理能量”。因此，当需要处理大量数据或在压力下做决定时，简化处理便成了“默认程序”。虽然简化处理确实能让决策变得简单，但关键是，它也时常诱使我们犯错。并且最糟糕的是，一般来说，我们越是经常面对模棱两可或过量的信息，就越倾向于这些下意识的、易出错的决策简化处理。因此，我们学会了更擅长犯错！

Why it’s hard to learn from our mistakes

为何难以从错误中吸取教训

So why is it we don’t simply make a mistake， learn from it and move on？ The answer is our brains perceive ambiguity9 and overstimulation as “threats” that must be defended against. Defense mechanisms are designed to ensure our survival in stressful situations. As such， they override10 our otherwise natural tendencies for corrective learning from our mistakes. In fact， the more we use these simplifications， the stronger they become. For example， worry is a defense mechanism. The more we worry， the greater our subsequent inclination to worry. For decades I have been intrigued with the chemical and micro-anatomic bases of these self-defending survival patterns and have written about their underlying mechanism long-term potentiation11 based upon something called neuroplasticity12 in the book A Clinical Guide to the Treatment of the Human Stress Response. Neuroplasticity refers to the inclination of the brain to change its shape and function based upon the repeated introduction of information （stimulation）. With time and use， the brain develops preferential pathways for information processing， decision making and action. The more we do anything， we alter our brains to become better at it. This includes worry， irritability， impulsiveness and patterns of thought that contribute to poor decision making.

为什么我们不是简单地从犯错到吸取教训然后继续前行呢？答案在于我们的大脑将模棱两可和过度刺激视为必须抵制的“威胁”。防御机制旨在确保我们能在压力情况下生存。正因如此，防御机制会压制我们的天然倾向，而我们原本会自然而然从错误中吸取经验自我矫正。实际上，简化处理会随着使用频率的增多而被强化。例如，忧虑是一种防御机制，我们越是经常忧虑，随后忧虑的倾向就越大。这种自动防御的生存模式的化学和微观组织基础，数十年来一直让我感兴趣。我在《人类压力反应治疗临床指南》一书中指出，这种模式的底层机制是基于神经功能重塑的长时程增强。神经功能重塑是指根据重复引入的信息（刺激），大脑具有改变其形状和功能的趋向。随着时间的推移和不断的使用，大脑会形成不同的优先路径分别用于信息处理、决策和行动。无论何事，我们做得越多，大脑就会随之改变，让我们愈发擅长此事，包括导致糟糕决策的忧虑、易怒、冲动和思维模式。

4 dangerous oversimplifications

四种有危害的过度简化

It has been said that recognition is the first step toward solving a problem. So， what do these error-prone simplifications look like？ Here are four common energy-saving simplifications.

人们常说发现问题是解决问题的第一步。那么，这些易造成错误的简化是什么样的呢？以下是四种常见又偷懒的简化处理。

Binary13 thinking： When confronted with ambiguous or an overwhelming amount of data， we tend to boil decisions down to simple “all or none，” “yes or no” decisions. Sadly， the world we live in is dimensional， not binary. Binary decision making increases volatility14. It causes us to ignore the details that can be the difference between success and failure.