Will AI Change Hollywood Forever?人工智能会永久改变好莱坞吗？

With the rise of AI-led services to write， voice and provide effects， industry experts express concern over the future.

随着人工智能驱动的编剧、配音和特效服务的兴起，业内专家对未来表示担忧。

What will AI （artificial intelligence） do to Hollywood？ Who better to answer that question than ChatGPT， a thrilling but scary chatbot developed by OpenAI. When the Guardian asked it about AI’s potential impact on the film industry， it made the following points：

人工智能会对好莱坞产生怎样的影响？没有谁比OpenAI公司开发的令人既兴奋又恐惧的聊天机器人ChatGPT更合适回答这个问题。当《卫报》就人工智能对电影行业的潜在影响询问ChatGPT时，它提到如下几点：

1. Scriptwriting： AI can be used to analyze existing screenplays and create new ones， potentially leading to more efficient and cost-effective1 screenwriting.

1. 编剧：人工智能可用于分析现有的剧本并创作新剧本，因此编剧会更高效、更具成本经济效益。

2. Pre-production： AI can be used to streamline the pre-production process， including casting， location scouting and storyboarding2.

2. 前期制作：人工智能可用于简化前期制作流程，包括选角、选景和绘制情节串连图板。

3. Special effects： AI can be used to create more realistic and immersive special effects， potentially reducing the need for practical effects and saving time and money in post-production.

3. 特效：人工智能可用于创建更逼真和身临其境的特效，能减少对实景镜头的需求，节省后期制作时间和费用。

4. Audience analysis： AI can be used to analyze audience data and preferences， helping studios make more informed decisions about which films to greenlight and how to market them.

4. 观众分析：人工智能可用于分析观众数据和偏好，有助于制片厂做出更明智的决策，确定拍摄哪些影片以及如何进行营销。

5. Distribution： AI can be used to personalize movie recommendations for viewers and optimize distribution strategies， potentially leading to higher ticket sales and revenue.

5. 发行：人工智能可用于个性化推荐影片给观众及优化发行策略，能提高票房并增加收益。

It was a reasonable answer that did not hint at HAL 90003-style malevolence4 or Terminator-like plans for world domination. But nor did it have much to say about how AI might be a disruptive force for actors （dead or alive）， audiences， screenwriters， the principle of intellectual property or the fundamental art of storytelling.

上述回答还算合理，因为并未暗示会出现HAL 9000式的恶煞或终结者式的称霸世界图谋。不过，对于人工智能有多大可能会成为颠覆性力量，冲击演员（无论是否在世）、观众、编剧、知识产权准则或基本叙事技巧，ChatGPT也鲜有提及。

When the Guardian turned to human interviewees， they offered a more ambivalent5 set of predictions.

当《卫报》转而询问人类受访者时，他们的预测则更为矛盾。

Ben Mankiewicz， a primetime6 host of Turner Classic Movies （TCM） and grandson of Herman Mankiewicz， who co-wrote the 1941 classic Citizen Kane， has just been experimenting with ChatGPT. “I signed up for a week and asked it to write a TCM introduction for Citizen Kane，” he says by phone from Los Angeles.

本·曼凯维奇是特纳经典电影频道黄金档的主持人，也是1941年问世的经典影片《公民凯恩》的联合编剧赫尔曼·曼凯维奇的孙子。他刚试用过ChatGPT。“我曾注册使用一星期，要求它为特纳经典电影频道撰文介绍《公民凯恩》。”他在洛杉矶的电话那头说。

But how does Mankiewicz， 55， feel about the idea of AI writing an entire film script？ “While it’s exciting， of course it’s disturbing. I find it very hard to believe that it’s ever going to get the humanity that makes a screenplay great.

但55岁的曼凯维奇对人工智能编写一整部电影剧本有什么看法呢？“这固然令人兴奋，却也让人不安。我很难相信人工智能会具有创作杰出剧本所需的人性特质。

“I’m worried but I don’t want to sound reactionary. It’s probably mostly useful if it gets a creative person who finds the blank page daunting to think， ‘Oh， all right， here’s some pages， here’s some ideas.’”

“我虽担心，但又不想让人觉得我因循守旧。如果人工智能让对着空白页面发怵的创作者心想‘哦，不错，这几页写得还行，这些想法不错’，那多半就有用。”

But some screenwriters are already worried about how far the AI revolution might go. Marc Guggenheim， who has numerous film and TV credits and is also author of the LegalDispatch newsletter， sees both promise and peril in the technology.

但一些编剧已开始担忧人工智能革命会发展到什么程度。创作了众多影视作品的马克·古根海姆同时还是《法律报道》简报的作者，他认为这项技术既带来希望也带来风险。

He says： “Right now I don’t think AI is ready for primetime in terms of being able to write scripts or craft stories but I see a world where it absolutely will be able to do that. It probably will be a real threat to writers down the road.

他说：“我认为，目前人工智能尚未具备为黄金档节目创作脚本或编排剧情的能力。但我预料有朝一日它绝对能行。往后它很可能会对编剧构成真正的威胁。”

“Who’s to say that ChatGPT won’t be ready in very short order7 to do a pass on a script， revisions on a script？ They could even say： ‘Do a set of revisions in the style of Aaron Sorkin.’”

“谁说ChatGPT无法在极短时间内对剧本进行审阅、修改呢？你甚至可以要求：‘按艾伦·索金的风格做一番修改。’”

The tech industry is notoriously male dominated and AI is no different. Guggenheim， 52， comments： “Where is the AI getting its information to be programmed and is that information only coming from a certain subset of society？ If it’s going to tell stories from the perspective of its programmers， essentially， then you have to worry about the lack of diversity among the programmers.”

众所周知，科技行业由男性主导，人工智能也不例外。52岁的古根海姆评论说：“人工智能从何处获取编程所需的信息？此类信息是否仅仅来自社会某一分支群体？如果基本上是从程序员的角度叙事，那么你得担心程序员缺乏多样性。”

Writers are not the only ones facing potential upheaval8. The voices of celebrity chef Anthony Bourdain and artist Andy Warhol were posthumously recreated by AI in the documentaries Roadrunner and The Andy Warhol Diaries. Actor James Earl Jones has given his approval for AI to use early Darth Vader9 recordings to replicate his voice in future Star Wars series.