Economic Growth No Longer Means Higher Carbon Emissions经济增长与高碳排放脱钩

If anywhere can claim to be the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution it is Coalbrookdale， a pretty village in England’s West Midlands.

如果说有哪个地方可以称得上是工业革命发源地的话，那一定是科尔布鲁克代尔——英格兰西米德兰兹郡的一个美丽村庄。

In 1709 Abraham Darby， a local merchant， leased a foundry and fed the furnace with coking coal， rather than charcoal made from wood. The use of the fossil fuel meant he could make pig iron much more cheaply， and cast it into pots， pans and cauldrons for cooking—the kind of low-cost manufactured goods that would， over the next three centuries， produce an unprecedented rise in living standards across the world.

1709 年，当地商人亚伯拉罕·达比租下了一家铸造厂，并在熔炉中烧炼焦煤而不是木炭。化石燃料的使用意味着制造生铁的成本会低很多，并可将生铁铸造成锅碗瓢盆等烹饪器具——在接下来的三个世纪里，这种低成本的制成品以前所未有的幅度提升了全世界人们的生活水平。

Mr Darby’s furnace was not just ground zero1 for the Industrial Revolution. It was also ground zero for global warming. Since the fateful smelting， economic output and greenhouse-gas emissions have risen in tandem. England’s furnaces were joined by coal-powered railways and steam-powered textile mills， all employing tools cast from coke-fuelled foundries.

达比先生的熔炉不仅仅是工业革命的发源地，也是全球变暖的起始点。这种冶炼方式影响重大，自此，经济产出和温室气体排放一直同步增长。与英格兰熔炉同时期出现的还有以煤为动力的蒸汽火车和蒸汽纺织厂，它们所使用的工具都是由焦炭供能的铸造厂铸造。

Between the mid-19th century and the outbreak of the first world war， Britain’s national income per person more than doubled and its carbon emissions increased four-fold. When other countries industrialised， their emissions spiralled， too.

从 19 世纪中叶到第一次世界大战爆发，英国人均国民收入翻了一番多，碳排放量则增加了三倍。其他国家在实现工业化时碳排放量同样出现急剧增长。

As politicians gather in Sharm el-Sheikh， an Egyptian holiday resort， to review progress on climate change at COP27 last year， there was at least one cause for optimism： the historic link between rising prosperity and carbon emissions has been broken. Today Britain is a member of a large and growing group of rich and middle-income countries that has severed it. This decoupling has been achieved not through the large-scale deployment of renewable energy—or by exporting emissions to poorer countries—but by a change in the relationship between economic growth and energy that is perhaps as significant as those first stirrings of the Industrial Revolution three centuries ago in Coalbrookdale.

去年，当政界人士齐聚埃及度假胜地沙姆沙伊赫，在联合国气候变化大会上回顾取得的进展时，人们发现至少有一件事值得开心，那就是历史上经济繁荣与碳排放之间的依存关系已经不复存在。如今，英国作为庞大且不断扩容的富裕和中等收入国家群体的一员，已然实现了这一脱钩。这种脱钩不是通过大规模使用可再生能源，或者向较贫穷国家转嫁排放来实现，而是通过改变经济增长与能源之间的关系来完成的。这种转变意义重大，或许堪比三个世纪前出现在科尔布鲁克代尔的工业革命的发端。

All told， some 33 countries have in recent years cut emissions while maintaining growth. Around three-fifths are European， meaning， as during the Industrial Revolution， the old continent is leading the way.

近年来共有约33个国家在保持经济增长的同时实现了减排。其中大约3/5是欧洲国家，这意味着就像工业革命时经济得到率先发展一样，如今欧洲大陆在减排上依然处于领先地位。

It would be wrong， however， to characterise decoupling as a luxury reserved for the most affluent countries. Argentina， Mexico and Uruguay have also joined the decouplers. In Mexico， for instance， emissions have fallen by 16% since their peak in 2012. Around the world， before the covid-19 pandemic distorted the numbers， more than 1bn people lived in countries with falling emissions and growing economies.

然而，如果将脱钩看作是最富裕国家才拥有的奢侈，那就不对了。阿根廷、墨西哥和乌拉圭也加入了这一行列。例如，墨西哥的碳排放量自 2012 年达到峰值以来已经下降了16%。纵观全球，在新冠疫情影响数据之前，超过 10 亿人生活在碳排放降低但经济依然增长的国家。

Territorial emissions， which reflect domestic production， began to fall much earlier. In Britain they peaked in the 1970s， before oil shocks and strikes decimated2 the country’s industry. But their decline merely reflected the fact that more manufacturing was taking place abroad： British clothes were being sewn in Dhaka instead of Derby， which led to no reduction in global emissions.

反映国内产值的境内排放量在很早以前即开始下降​​。在英国，境内排放在20 世纪 70 年代达到顶峰，那时石油危机和罢工还没有严重影响其工业。但这些下降仅仅表明他们将制造业转移到了国外——英国人穿的服装在达卡市而不是在德比郡制造，因而全球碳排放量没有减少。

The figures in this article mostly come from analysis of data produced by the Global Carbon Project， a greenhouse gas-monitoring outfit3. These include estimates of the emissions from imports， and so capture the vast majority of a country’s carbon footprint. In other words， Britain’s figures include emissions from imported T-shirts made in Bangladesh.

而本文中的数据主要来自一个温室气体监测机构——“全球碳计划”。其数据包括了对进口物品碳排放量的估算，因此能监测一个国家绝大部分碳足迹。换句话说，英国的数据包括了进口自孟加拉国制造的 T 恤所产生的碳排放量。

The more recent decline in emissions is therefore the real deal. Part of the explanation is that the countries to which manufacturing has been outsourced now emit less carbon themselves， notes Viktoras Kulionis of Pictet Asset Management. In all but a couple of dozen industrialising countries—including Cambodia， Mongolia and Vietnam—GDP growth produces fewer carbon emissions than used to be the case， something known as “relative decoupling”. Emissions imported by the OECD group of mostly rich countries peaked in 2006， at 2bn tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent. They have since fallen by more than a third to 1.3bn.

所以，近来碳排放量的下降是实实在在的。百达资产管理公司的维克托拉斯·库利奥尼斯指出，下降的部分原因是接受制造业外包业务的国家自身减少了碳排放。除了柬埔寨、蒙古和越南等二三十个正在进行工业化的国家之外，其他所有国家的 GDP 增长产生的碳排放量都比以前少，这就是所谓的“相对脱钩”。经合组织（主要由富裕国家组成）成员国的进口排放量在 2006 年达到峰值，接近于 20 亿吨二氧化碳排放量。此后，这一数字已经下降了1/3以上，至 13 亿吨。