International Competition and Cooperation of Artificial

International Competition and Cooperation of Artificial Intelligence from the Perspective of State-to-State Power Relations

2023 marks a key juncture for artificial intelligence (AI) to be deeply embedded in international relations. From a technical point of view, the rapid development of generative AI not only provides new carriers and capabilities for countries’ foreign exchanges, but also brings new risks and challenges to national security. In terms of topics, AI has created a series of new agendas for international relations, such as security, ethics and development, which need to be accelerated under the framework of global governance. Formally speaking, the international competition and cooperation in AI are evolving fast and different power relations prompt countries to follow different paths of competition or cooperation, giving rise to various forms of international interaction in AI. Therefore, comprehensive analyses of AI influence on national power acquisition, holding and expectation, and discussions on the power logic behind AI international competition and cooperation can provide new ideas for resolving the dilemma of international competition, promoting AI international cooperation and improving global governance.

AI Influence on National Power Strategy

As a strategic and holistic emerging technology, AI is developing rapidly, which not only provides new capabilities and means for the country at the technical level, but also brings about profound changes in the international political, economic and security domains. It has become one of the focuses in international relations studies how AI affects the power strategy between countries.

First, from the perspective of power acquisition, the costs and benefits of “punishment”, “reward” and “regulation” have been seriously affected, which has comprehensively changed the country’s strategy of obtaining power. The influence of AI on the acquisition of state power is complex and profound. On the one hand, AI technology has the function of digital and intelligent empowerment, which can greatly reduce the cost of state power acquisition. With the help of intelligent technology, the state can perceive and judge the strategic situation in real time and execute power more efficiently. Since 2018, the United States Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Agency (IARPA) and its affiliated offices have initiated dozens of AI projects, including the Mercury project of automatic political event prediction, which has significantly improved its information superiority and decision-making ability in intelligence. On the other hand, AI technology has created a new field of power confrontation and provided a new carrier for power interaction between countries. As a general technology, AI power interaction can generate vital spillover effects and increase power gains in other fields. For example, in the Ukraine crisis, the United States and its scientific and technological enterprises imposed punitive power on Russia through sanctions, blockades, evacuation, etc., which, as pointed out by Thea Kendler, US Assistant Secretary of Commerce “not only made it difficult for Russia to access cutting-edge digital technology, but also made it impossible for its defense industry, military and intelligence departments to obtain most products made in the West, thereby undermining its military strength.” AI is therefore considered as a key, subversive and strategic technology.

AI brings changes in the cost-benefit dynamics of power acquisition, which makes it possible for more countries to use three kinds of power flexibly, namely punishment, reward and regulation. This is a new phenomenon different from traditional geopolitics. First of all, as far as punitive power, which is almost bound to major countries in traditional geopolitics, is concerned, power acquisition often requires strength and control, thereby giving rise to strategic concepts such as “sea control power” and “land control power”. In the field of AI, countries and even non-state actors without strong military strength can exert influence through cyber-attacks, information warfare or control of data streams and algorithms. The acquisition of this ability does not depend entirely on traditional military strength or economic aggregate, but more on scientific and technological innovation, talent and ingenious application of strategy and tactics. Secondly, with rapid development of AI, the ways for countries to use the means of reward to make others obey and get rewards consequently are increasingly diversified, and the cost is descending fast. This is because the spread and replication of digital technology will not increase cost, but rather enhance value by engaging more users. Therefore, the traditional economic law of diminishing marginal revenue is not fully applicable to the digital field where AI is located. Judging from the actual power interaction between countries, reward in the form of technical support, data sharing, economic assistance, etc. is almost of zero cost to the countries that obtain power. This will make countries with relatively backward technology fall into dependence on technical assistance from advanced countries, resulting in new inequalities in international relations. Finally, the regulatory power means in AI is not only more closely combined with punitive and rewarding means, but also has a far-reaching impact. On the one hand, regulatory power can provide a more “legitimate” implementation framework for punitive and rewarding means through international standards, technical agreements and codes of conduct. For example, since 2019, the United States and Europe have revised the Wassenaar Agreement to include dual-use technologies and emerging technologies in the control list, which provides more possibilities for joint efforts to exercise power through punitive means such as blockade, sanctions and embargo. On the other hand, different from the traditional field, the regulatory means in the field of AI have a far-reaching influence on power. At present, AI is basically in the stage of technological nascent and development. Once a certain country forms a strong regulation on another, it may exert structural power so that the receiver end of power directly fall behind in the wave of technological development, and is thus difficult to gain the dominant position in the future technological revolution. The power imposition can not only shape international technical standards and norms, but also determine the direction and speed of technological development, thus affecting the economic competitiveness and strategic position among countries. Therefore, the application of regulatory means in AI plays an important role in shaping the future international order.